Apple
will report its earnings for the final three months of 2014 (Q1 2015 in
Apple's fiscal year) on Tuesday, 27 January and the iPhone-maker is
widely expected to beat its revenue guidance by some distance.
In
the past Apple typically low-balled its guidance figures before
consistently smashing those expectations in its quarterly earnings
calls.
But Apple has changed and now offers more accurate quarterly guidance figures which is why seasoned Apple reporter Philip Elmer-DeWitt says that while Apple will exceed its own - and Wall Street's - expectations "it won't be an insane beat, like the old days".
Elmer-DeWitt
has polled 35 analysts - amateur and professional - who suggest that
Apple will report $68.3bn (£45.5bn) in revenue, which would be a 21%
increase over 12-months ago, driven mostly on huge sales of the iPhone 6
and iPhone 6 Plus as well as continued strong performance of the Mac
range of PCs but despite continuing weak iPad sales.
Here we take a closer look at what is expected from Apple's Q1 2015 earnings call and how to follow it online:
- Apple's Q5 2015 guidance
This is what Apple said in October that it would report on Tuesday:
- revenue between $63.5 billion and $66.5 billion
- gross margin between 37.5% and 38.5%
- operating expenses between $5.4 billion and $5.5 billion
- other income/(expense) of $325 million
- tax rate of 26.5%
While
these estimates at the time were seen as relatively in-line with what
analysts were predicting, in the three months since, reports of huge
iPhone sales, as well as continued strong Mac sales have seen analysts
revise their estimates.
- revenue between $63.5 billion and $66.5 billion
- gross margin between 37.5% and 38.5%
- operating expenses between $5.4 billion and $5.5 billion
- other income/(expense) of $325 million
- tax rate of 26.5%
iPhone 6 sales
The
iPhone has long been the cornerstone of Apple's business. In September
it launched the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus and while the previous
quarter did include 10 days of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus sales, the
true impact of the new larger-screen devices will only really be seen on
Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Fortune range
between 71 million units and 61 million units sold, while KGI analyst
Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted the company has sold a huge 73 million
iPhones in the quarter.
Last
year the company sold 51 million units, which at the time was a record
number, but with the huge interest in the new phones aligned with a
wider global launch (the phones are now on sale in 115 countries) means
the iPhone figure announced on Tuesday will blow this record out of the
water.
Mac bucks the trend
The
PC industry has been in the mire for a couple of years now, but while
Apple's Mac range of desktops and laptops have not been selling in huge
volumes, sales have been bucking industry trends by consistently
improving.
According to a report from IDC Apple
sold 5.75 million Macs in the final three months of 2014, surpassing
the record-breaking 5.5 million units it shipped in the previous
quarter.
Apple is set to give its Mac range another boost in early 2015 when it launches a 12in MacBook Air in the first quarter of the year.
Worst iPad sales drop yet
Sales
of Apple's market dominating iPad have been falling for the last six
months with sales down 12% in the previous quarter. However the launch
of the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini 3, along with the lowering of the price
of the cheapest iPad to under £200 could see a return to growth for the
tablet line.
However
analysts don't think this is likely. According to Fortune's Apple
analyst pool, the company sold 21.5 million tablets in the three months
to the end of 2014, which is significantly down on the 26 million it
sold 12 months previously and if this pans out would prove to the
biggest year-on-year drop in iPad sales to date.
It
would represent the fourth quarter in a row of falling iPad sales and
would reflect the "massive deceleration" in global tablet sales that
research company IDC predicted late last year.
China Power
One
of the most interesting aspects of Apple's Q1 2015 earnings call will
be the importance of China. Apple opened its latest Chinese retail store
just last Friday and it is predicted that the market will contribute
the most revenue of any territory to the company's Q1 2015 earnings.
The
Financial Times reports that analysts predict more iPhones were sold in
China during the quarter than in the US, marking an important milestone
in the shifting power balance of the smartphone market.
Apple's
iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus went on sale in China during the quarter
following a short delay due to some regulatory issues, but with these
problems behind them together with an insatiable demand for the new
devices and all China's networks on board, the sales figures from China
could be huge.
Apple Watch
Apple's
first wearable is of huge interest and while the company has unveiled
the Watch already, there are a lot of details yet to be finalised
including prices of certain models and most importantly release dates.
Apple
doesn't typically make any major announcements during earnings call,
but analysts are sure to push CEO Tim Cook for a release date to help
with modelling this quarter's estimates.
Indeed
Apple's own estimates could give an indication if the Watch will be
launched in the first three months of 2015 or not, with the latest
reports suggesting a March launch date.
How to follow Apple Q1 2015 earnings call online
Apple's earning call takes place at 2pm local time in Cupertino and will be available for all to follow on Apple's website. Here is a list of the time the earnings call will begin around he world:
- San Francisco - 2pm
- Cupertino - 2pm
- New York - 5pm
- London - 10pm
- Paris - 11pm
- Amsterdam - midnight
- Johannesburg - 1am (Wednesday)
- Moscow - 2am (Wednesday)
- Bangkok - 5am (Wednesday)
- Hong Kong - 6am (Wednesday)
- Seoul - 7am (Wednesday)
- Sydney - 9am (Wednesday)
Here are the system requirements for listening to the call:
Streaming
audio requires iPhone, iPad, or iPod touch running iOS 4.2 or above, a
Mac running OS X 10.6.8 or above or a PC running QuickTime 7 or later.
Safari, Internet Explorer, Firefox or 32-bit Chrome also required. If
you do not have QuickTime installed on your Windows PC, it is available
at www.apple.com/uk/quicktime.
Via ibtimes.co.uk/technology
Streaming
audio requires iPhone, iPad, or iPod touch running iOS 4.2 or above, a
Mac running OS X 10.6.8 or above or a PC running QuickTime 7 or later.
Safari, Internet Explorer, Firefox or 32-bit Chrome also required. If
you do not have QuickTime installed on your Windows PC, it is available
at www.apple.com/uk/quicktime.
Via ibtimes.co.uk/technology
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